The news that Donald Trump was shot and injured at a campaign rally on Saturday is the latest shock in a U.S. presidential campaign that has veered further and further into uncharted territory in a febrile political environment (Surprises, Shocks and Unintended Consequences) and high-stakes US election.
U.S. Secret Service agents surround Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday after he is shot and wounded. Evan Vucci / AP
Recriminations and blame are erupting and conspiracy theories proliferating, signaling an even more fraught period between now and November. U.S. presidential election years often feature an "October Surprise". A major event in July, in this case, may not be the last shock of the campaign.
A bleeding Trump defiantly fist-pumped the air as Secret Service Agents surrounded him before rushing him off the stage. It's an image likely to define the campaign and solidify his standing as an American folk hero and political martyr to his supporters, rallying his loyal base and enraging many others, who are already blaming the U.S. Secret Service, Democrats and the "deep state" for the circumstances allowing a commando-crawling, rifle-wielding shooter to get so dangerously close to the former president .(Witness tells BBC he saw gunman on top of a building located just outside Trump rally)
Miraculously, only one of the volley of five bullets that came his way hit the president, grazing his ear. Trump's injuries were minor and he has been released from hospital. One spectator was killed and two others critically injured. The alleged shooter was killed.
Biden Addresses Nation After Trump Shooting
President Biden speaks after a shooting at former President Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania: “There’s no place in America for this kind of violence. It’s sick. It’s sick. ... We cannot condone this.” NBC News
U.S. political violence is sadly a feature and not a bug, as the assassinations of Lincoln, Harding, JFK, RFK, MLK and the attempt on Ronald Reagan's life in 1981 show. The question now is how a nation in which a significant proportion of citizens believe civil war is increasingly likely will respond.
We don't expect there to be an initial reaction in financial markets. If anything, the near-term implication will be the acceleration of the consensus view in markets of a Trump victory.
Via PredictIt: Donald Trump's Odds of Winning Have Increased
Latest Polls : PredictIt
While Trump’s odds of winning have increased, I am not yet as convinced as some that his victory is a forgone conclusion. The risk temperature is too high and there are too many wild cards to assume linear trend lines.
We have been flagging that Summer 2024 would be a "Danger Zone" for global politics for some time; the French and U.K. elections also saw upticks in violence and intimidation during campaigning.
We remain cautious about the outlook for the U.S. elections given the number of moving pieces and the high risk temperature. To be sure, the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next week and the Democratic National Convention in mid-August have now taken on much greater significance.
Please get in touch if we can be helpful in briefing your board, ExCo or leadership team. We will continue to monitor developments.
Best wishes,
Tina
Statement from U.S. Secret Service
Response from J.D. Vance, on the shortlist for Trump’s VP
Donald Trump rushed off stage at Pennsylvania rally, MSNBC
